Trend Line Data

For each of these categories, the pens were sorted from shortest to longest days on feed.  Scatter point graphs on items such as ADG, F/G, finish weight and % Choice for each sex and weight range were plotted.  On each of these scatter point graphs, a trend line was plotted to show the relationship between the criteria (such as ADG or F/G) and days on feed.  This is illustrated in Figures 1 & 2.

   Figure 1                                                                         Figure 2

After developing trend lines for each weight segment, the trend lines were plotted onto a single graph for each of the criteria measured.   From these combined graphs, one can see the effect of days on feed for each of the criteria on each of the initial weight categories.  The Steer data are shown in Figures 3-6.

  Figure 3                                                                       Figure 4

Figure 3 illustrates how cattle on feed for fewer days have a higher ADG, but it appears that the lighter steers have less down slope on their trend lines.  Figure 4 shows how dry matter feed conversion increased with days on feed in all weight classes, and each of the trend lines have a similar slope.

   Figure 5                                                                      Figure 6

Figure 5 shows how finish weight increases with days on feed, and these trend lines have very similar slopes.  Figure 6 shows how more days on feed increased the % Choice for each group.  Over time, the calves see less improvement in % choice then the yearlings.  There is carcass data on approximately one third of the total closeouts.  Because of this some of the categories were combined for the Choice data.

The combined trend line graphs for heifers are shown in Figures 7-10.

  Figure 7                                                                           Figure 8

ADG and trends are very similar to the steer data.  Figure 7 shows how ADG declines with added days on feed, and different weight groups have different slopes on the trend lines.  Figure 8 shows the increased dry matter feed needed per pound of gain, with similar slopes for each of the trend lines.  An exception on this graph is the yearling heifers over 800# start weight.  Looking deeper into the data, it appears that there are fed cows in this data set, that even though they had less than 100 days on feed they had a poor feed conversion, while yearling heifers with longer days on feed had better feed conversions.

  Figure 9                                                                           Figure 10

Figure 9 shows the increase in finish weight on the heifers, with similar slopes for all groups.  Figure 10 shows the % Choice data for each of the heifer calves and yearlings.  From this data it appears that the amount of Choice cattle is not improved with added days on feed.  VetLife® Benchmark® data would support this, finding that heifers with more than 100 days on feed see no increase in % Choice.  It would seem that producers should optimize carcass weight on market heifers by feeding them as long as they are efficient, but never hold heifers with the goal of increasing the number of Choice carcasses in the pen.

Using Trend Line Analysis to determine Optimum End Points

From each of these trend lines we calculated a regression formula that demonstrates how the cattle performed over different days on feed.  By entering days on feed into the formula we can project ADG, F/G, and % Choice that is based on the actual closeout performance in our database.

It should be noted here that this analysis is from closeout data analysis and not from controlled research.  The volume of the records that we have in the database gives us confidence that the trend lines can be useful in making management decisions.

Also, these graphs are based on averages from the closeout data.  Every pen of cattle has its own unique characteristics and other factors can impact actual results.  The more information that a feeder has on the cattle he is feeding, the better he can make decisions about the best end point for these cattle.

As an example, we used the regression formulas to calculate the performance for 21 additional days on feed beyond the average for each weight group (Table 3).

Table 3                                  Incremental Performance for the last 21 Days on Feed

The last 21 days on feed result in the slowest, least efficient gains.  The cost per pound of gain for these days can easily exceed the market value of the pounds that are gained.  The objective of this analysis was to calculate at what point these incremental costs exceed the incremental returns.

For example, the costs and benefits of an additional 21 days on feed for a steer that was started on feed in the 600-700# range and currently at 210 days on feed is calculated as:

·         21 days on feed x 1.82# ADG = 38.22# additional weight x $.85 = +$59.13/hd

·         % Choice will go up by 1.07% units.  At a $6 Choice/Select spread = +$1.55/hd

·         21 days of yardage + interest at 40¢/day = -$8.40/hd

·         21 days of additional feed (@ $1.80/bu corn) = -$17.15 feed cost

·         The sum of this is an additional net profit of $35.13 per head for the additional 21 days.

This scenario changes with every market change.  For example:

·         At a $3.00 corn market the net profit is $1.25 per head. 

·         At a $75 cattle market, the net profit is $5.23 per head.  

·         With a $3.00 corn market and $75 fed cattle market, the net loss is $2.49 per head.

A valid question would be “what does added days on feed do to dressing percents and carcass weights?”  VetLife® has done an excellent serial slaughter trial on 770# heifers that shows a steady increase in the dressing percent with longer days on feed.   A key difference between this trial and our closeout data would be that the longest days on feed in the serial slaughter (152 days) is a full 7 days shorter than our average days on feed for this class of heifers (159 days).   From the VetLife data it appears the dressing % leveled off after 150 days on feed.  Based on the data from the Land O’Lakes trade area, one could make a simple assumption that longer days on feed may increase the dressing percent.  However, this is likely to be offset by the risk of increased heavy carcasses and YG 4s.

The next step was to take these formulas and automate the process, instead of calculating the changes for each group in each scenario individually.  Using the formulas calculated from the trend lines, the affect of adding 10 day increments for each of the weight classes was calculated into a spreadsheet.   Inputs are the current corn price, the daily cost of yardage + interest, the current cattle market, the current Choice/Select spread, and the current days on feed for each weight group.

The reason for using the live cattle market in these calculations is that most of our closeouts are turned in on a standardized 63% dress and we do not have the actual carcass weights in the database.

Figures 11-18 show the incremental cost of gain and profitability on the steers and heifer groups for feeding an additional 10-60 days.  For each graph, day 0 was the average days on feed for that group from the closeout data.

At $1.80 Corn, $85 Cattle Market and $6 Choice/Select Spread:

Figure 11                                                                         Figure 12

Figure 11 shows how the cost of gain increases for each additional 10 days on feed; notice how many of the data points for yearlings are above 80 cents per pound of gain.  Figure 12 shows how the profit per head will change with each additional 10 days on feed.  It appears that with $3.00 corn and an $85 market we could have safely fed most steers for an additional 60 days, but a key question is whether the $85 market will hold for 60 days?  The dynamics for these graphs can change quickly. 

Notice that the <500 pound calves seem to do significantly better then the rest of the steers.  This is a smaller data set, and I suspect that fewer of these pens in the dataset were overfed, which positively effects the calculations.  In the same way, it can be assumed that a larger number of steers in the 900 pound category have been overfed, resulting in calculations that show a dramatic result from added days on feed.

At $3.00 Corn, $75 Cattle Market and $6 Choice/Select Spread:

Figure 13                                                                        Figure 14

Figures 13 and 14 show the impact of higher corn prices and a lower cattle market on the cost of gain and profitability, with no advantage shown to holding cattle, especially to the risk of the market dropping even further.

The analysis for the heifer data is show in Figures 15-18.  As with the steers, Day 0 is the average days on feed for each group.

At $1.80 Corn, $85 Cattle Market and $6 Choice/Select Spread:

Figure 15                                                                       Figure 16

Notice that compared to the steers, the heifers are more sensitive to the added days on feed.  The cost of gain appears to move up at a steeper rate and the incremental profits are smaller.  The >800# heifers seemed to do a little better than the rest of the heifers; similar to the <500 steers this is a smaller data set and the impact of fed cows on this data was addressed earlier.

At $3.00 Corn, $75 Cattle Market and $6 Choice/Select Spread:

Figure 17                                                                        Figure 18

Like the steers, the higher corn price and lower cattle market had a significant impact on the cost of gain and the incremental profits, only more so.  In Figure 17, notice that only the >800# heifer group has data points below 80 cent cost per pound of gain, and that in Figure 18, all but the >800# heifer group have reduced profitability for added days on feed.

Summary

Based on the Land O’Lakes Feedlot Performance and Cost Monitoring closeout data collected over the last 6 years, the ideal end weight for fed cattle will vary based on sex, starting weight, and the market values for corn and fed cattle.  The last days in the feeding period are the least efficient and most expensive days on feed.  In general, over feeding heifers reduced feedlot performance and profitability at a greater rate than the steers, and should be managed differently.

Being aware of how profitability is affected by days on feed is essential to staying competitive in the cattle feeding business.